← HeldenTaverne Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HeldenTaverne Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 6 83.3% 69.5% 58.3% 58.1% 1214
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 10.0% 6 66.7% 58.9% 56.7% 56.0% 1454 ↑ top
3 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 10.0% 5 60.0% 55.1% 53.3% 52.9% 1157
4 Wind Allies 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 56.4% 52.0% 52.1% 1195
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 49.5% 50.0% 49.7% 1109 ↓ low
6 Wind Beast 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 48.7% 50.0% 49.5% 1244 ↑ top
7 Fire Arcane 2 20.0% 9 38.9% 43.2% 47.6% 47.9% 1134 ↓ low
8 Water Tera Silvie 1 10.0% 4 25.0% 39.0% 44.0% 44.7% 1117 ↓ low
9 Water Umbra Ranger 1 10.0% 4 0.0% 26.2% 40.0% 40.5% 1142 ↓ low