Water AlliesTier 2
at JWW Store Championship
decks
3
(21.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.8%
avg ELO -5.9 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1226
· median 1210
· range 1080–1388
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1161
Q3 1370
1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 21.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Vanitas | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
