EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AK TCGKL Constructed Event .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.2% | 7 | 85.7% | 52.5% | 55.4% | 50.6% | 1532 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 12.5% | 17 | 70.6% | 50.6% | 53.9% | 50.0% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 4.2% | 7 | 71.4% | 54.2% | 52.7% | 51.1% | 1285 | — |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.2% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 1264 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 2 | 8.3% | 8 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 51.8% | 50.3% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Silvie | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.2% | 51.7% | 51.1% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 12.5% | 17 | 52.9% | 50.3% | 51.5% | 50.3% | 1271 | — |
| 9 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 51.4% | 50.3% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.1% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Allies | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 49.0% | 50.2% | 1325 | — |
| 12 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.7% | 48.6% | 49.2% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 47.1% | 50.1% | 1278 | — |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.5% | 45.7% | 49.1% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.8% | 42.0% | 48.6% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Neos | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 30.0% | 47.3% | 41.8% | 48.6% | 1071 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.1% | 40.8% | 48.7% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 0.0% | 46.7% | 37.5% | 49.0% | 1208 | ↓ low |