EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 15.0% | 13 | 76.9% | 60.4% | 60.0% | 55.6% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.6% | 57.8% | 56.2% | 1243 | — |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.3% | 56.2% | 55.3% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 15.0% | 14 | 64.3% | 55.1% | 53.8% | 51.5% | 1238 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 15.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 51.0% | 52.9% | 1249 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.8% | 44.4% | 45.5% | 1301 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 10.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.6% | 44.4% | 46.8% | 1196 | — |
| 8 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 44.0% | 46.9% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 30.7% | 42.0% | 42.0% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Slimes | 2 | 10.0% | 9 | 22.2% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 2 | 10.0% | 7 | 7.1% | 33.1% | 38.1% | 43.3% | 1117 | ↓ low |