← Favonia Kampar Grand Opening WIN HALF CASE Tournament
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Favonia Kampar Grand Opening WIN HALF CASE Tournament
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1404
· median 1404
· range 1344–1465
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1221
Q3 1416
1465
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% | -1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
