← SGCCC Mortal Ambition season Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at SGCCC Mortal Ambition season Store Championship
decks
3
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1240
· range 1214–1384
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1136
Q3 1379
1535
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 45.1% | -3.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
