← Favonia Hobbies GATCG Store Championships (ALC)
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Favonia Hobbies GATCG Store Championships (ALC)
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-3-4
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1333
· range 1237–1428
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1179
Q3 1424
1472
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
