← Yeti Gaming Webcam Locals 10/24/2024
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Locals 10/24/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |