← Nor Cal TCG Store Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Nor Cal TCG Store Championship
decks
1
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.9%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1474–1474
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1299
Q3 1453
1678
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 50.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
