← Mortal Ambitions - Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mortal Ambitions - Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 1 10.0% 4 87.5% 70.0% 62.0% 62.5% 1318 ↑ top
2 Wind Cats 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 55.1% 54.0% 53.4% 1244
3 Slimes 3 30.0% 12 54.2% 54.0% 53.0% 53.0% 1220
4 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 48.8% 52.9% 51.4% 1268
5 Water Allies 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 51.7% 51.7% 49.1% 1490 ↑ top
6 Fire Exia 2 20.0% 6 33.3% 43.2% 42.5% 44.8% 1174 ↓ low
7 Water Umbra Ranger 1 10.0% 4 0.0% 25.1% 36.7% 36.4% 1157 ↓ low