Fire ExiaTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Slimes | 13.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.4% | -14.0 |
| Wind Cats | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Silvie | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Beast | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |