← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly Sunday 11/3/2024
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly Sunday 11/3/2024
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaken Resistance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |