← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly Sunday 11/3/2024
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly Sunday 11/3/2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conduit of Seasons | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mind Freeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Naia, Diviner of Fortunes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ebbing Tide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dong Zhou, False Liege | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |