EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at YUGUCO GA TCG Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Penguin Mill

56.7%

12.5% share · 5 matches

12.5% share · 3 matches

12.5% share · 1 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	12.5%	3	100.0%	67.1%	60.0%	58.2%	1382	↑ top
2	Water Penguin Mill	1	12.5%	5	80.0%	68.4%	56.7%	57.4%	1433	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Mage	1	12.5%	1	50.0%	51.8%	50.0%	51.8%	1202	↓ low
4	Slimes	1	12.5%	2	50.0%	42.3%	50.0%	45.4%	1409	↑ top
5	Water Allies	1	12.5%	3	16.7%	41.9%	45.0%	47.9%	1213	↓ low
6	Wind Allies	1	12.5%	3	16.7%	39.3%	43.3%	45.0%	1105	↓ low
7	Wind Shadowstrike	2	25.0%	3	16.7%	33.5%	43.3%	42.3%	1375	↑ top