← Time Capsule Store Championship
Water ArisannaTier 2
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1062
· median 1062
· range 1062–1062
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1116
Q3 1306
1388
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Exia | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
