← Time Capsule Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Time Capsule Store Championship
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.2%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1230
· median 1230
· range 1229–1231
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1116
Q3 1306
1388
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Exia | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Silvie | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Wind Cats | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
