← Grand Archive Store Championship (AMB Season) @ TAB
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship (AMB Season) @ TAB
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1178–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1211
Q3 1330
1587
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 23.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | +26.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
