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Water AlliesTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Slimes | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Cats | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |