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Water Penguin MillTier 1
at RWT Collective - AMB Store Champs
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1482
· median 1482
· range 1482–1482
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1150
Q3 1470
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Slimes | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
