← Mortal Ambition Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mortal Ambition Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 1 9.1% 4 75.0% 61.3% 60.0% 58.1% 1333 ↑ top
2 Fire Slimes 1 9.1% 4 75.0% 57.7% 56.0% 53.3% 1359 ↑ top
3 Water Allies 1 9.1% 4 75.0% 50.6% 54.0% 47.0% 1517 ↑ top
4 Slimes 2 18.2% 5 40.0% 49.3% 53.3% 54.5% 1153 ↓ low
5 Water Ravishing Mill 1 9.1% 4 62.5% 50.5% 52.9% 50.6% 1262
6 Fire Aggro 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 53.7% 51.7% 52.9% 1114 ↓ low
7 Wind Razorgale 3 27.3% 10 35.0% 44.5% 44.3% 46.1% 1298
8 Wind Silvie 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 34.7% 40.0% 42.8% 1141 ↓ low