Water AlliesTier 2
at Luxera's Map Invitational
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-4-1
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1413
· median 1413
· range 1353–1472
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1352
Q1 1423
Q3 1550
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Wind Cats | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
