EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 100.0% | 61.9% | 60.0% | 55.7% | 1287 | — |
| 2 | Slimes | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 75.0% | 59.9% | 56.1% | 53.9% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.8% | 56.0% | 54.0% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 55.7% | 53.3% | 52.6% | 1252 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.3% | 53.3% | 53.9% | 1208 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 15.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1230 | — |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 53.2% | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1249 | — |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 45.0% | 43.9% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 16.7% | 38.0% | 42.5% | 43.9% | 985 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Exia | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 12.5% | 41.8% | 42.0% | 46.3% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.7% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 33.3% | 38.3% | 1283 | — |