← Cardboardia ALC Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cardboardia ALC Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 1 25.0% 5 70.0% 51.4% 55.6% 50.4% 1413 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 25.0% 3 66.7% 60.5% 55.0% 56.8% 1495 ↑ top
3 Fire Tera Silvie 1 25.0% 2 25.0% 48.5% 45.0% 49.1% 1199 ↓ low
4 Fire Crux Mage 1 25.0% 2 0.0% 37.2% 33.3% 37.2% 1394 ↑ top