Water Penguin MillTier 2
at GA 元氣滿屋店冠賽
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-2-4
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1413
· range 1298–1528
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1209
Q3 1388
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Water Arisanna | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
