Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Vanitas | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alliance Gearshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Loved by All | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arima, Gaia's Wings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Develop Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ocean's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |