EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 57.7% | 60.0% | 54.6% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 25.0% | 44.9% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 1347 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 45.3% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1254 | — |