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Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Phantom Cards and Collectibles
decks
2
(50.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-1-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1463
· median 1463
· range 1333–1593
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1142
Q1 1311
Q3 1454
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
