EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at amb store championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 100.0% | 67.2% | 60.0% | 56.9% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.5% | 56.7% | 55.5% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.7% | 56.7% | 56.4% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 51.4% | 51.8% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 25.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 46.7% | 47.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Exia | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.6% | 44.0% | 44.9% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Neos | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.8% | 43.3% | 43.2% | 1276 | — |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1325 | ↑ top |