← Grand Archive TCG - Constructed - Reginals Qualifier Event
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - Constructed - Reginals Qualifier Event
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-2-3
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1391–1424
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1219
Q3 1405
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Wind Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
