← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/6/2025
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/6/2025
decks
4
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1230
· median 1276
· range 1039–1327
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1197
Q3 1413
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Exia | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Neos | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
