← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/6/2025
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/6/2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |