EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Win-A-Box!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 2 | 40.0% | 3 | 83.3% | 51.5% | 56.7% | 50.7% | 1323 | — |
| 2 | Fire Lorraine | 1 | 20.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1343 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 46.7% | 49.6% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 40.0% | 49.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |