EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gaming DNA ALC Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 23.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 59.9% | 59.3% | 54.1% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 62.5% | 63.6% | 52.0% | 54.8% | 1295 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.0% | 51.4% | 52.8% | 1275 | — |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 49.3% | 51.4% | 1208 | — |
| 5 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 48.0% | 46.3% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.8% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 983 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 15.4% | 5 | 0.0% | 22.0% | 38.3% | 39.1% | 1264 | — |