← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/20/2025
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 2/20/2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Slimes | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Overlord | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frost Shard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mind Freeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |