← GGA Grand Archive ALC Regional

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGA Grand Archive ALC Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 3 23.1% 10 80.0% 68.7% 57.8% 56.8% 1313 ↑ top
2 Water Allies 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 54.5% 56.7% 53.6% 1287 ↑ top
3 Fire Crux Mage 1 7.7% 4 62.5% 53.4% 55.0% 54.0% 1246 ↑ top
4 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.7% 4 62.5% 58.0% 48.3% 49.4% 1234
5 Fire Aggro 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 51.5% 46.7% 47.4% 1153 ↓ low
6 Fire Neos 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 50.1% 46.7% 47.1% 1200
7 Fire Lorraine 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 42.1% 45.7% 47.2% 1131 ↓ low
8 Fire Umbra Ranger 2 15.4% 5 20.0% 35.8% 40.0% 41.4% 1142 ↓ low
9 Water Umbra Ranger 1 7.7% 2 0.0% 33.8% 40.0% 40.2% 1169 ↓ low
10 Wind Arisanna 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 33.8% 40.0% 42.1% 1132 ↓ low