Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Regionals - Cardpoint
decks
4
(17.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
9-7-3
overall winrate
55.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1248
· median 1229
· range 1094–1439
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1170
Q3 1322
1584
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
