Water FractalTier 1
at Regionals - Cardpoint
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-4-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1273
· median 1273
· range 1226–1319
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1170
Q3 1322
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Exia | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Vanitas | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
