Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Liao, Bloodmonger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |