Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.2%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1394
· median 1394
· range 1310–1479
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1161
Q3 1381
1479
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.7 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
