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Wind AlliesTier 1
at HVN Gathering Hub Store Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 29.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |