← SGCCC Abyssal Heaven season Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at SGCCC Abyssal Heaven season Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 22.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 39.2% | -6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.1% | -8.3 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |