← SGCCC Abyssal Heaven season Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at SGCCC Abyssal Heaven season Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 27.8% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rotund Squirrel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |