← ABYSSAL HEAVEN STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Water GenbuTier 1
at ABYSSAL HEAVEN STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1399
· median 1399
· range 1297–1500
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1151
Q1 1351
Q3 1490
1642
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Water Fractal | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
