Water FractalTier 2
at 淡水 貓腳印 HVN 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1328
· median 1328
· range 1328–1328
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1274
Q3 1426
1536
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Rai | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
