Water GenbuTier 1
at 淡水 貓腳印 HVN 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1401–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1274
Q3 1426
1536
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
