← Arcanum Sanctorum HVN store championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Arcanum Sanctorum HVN store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 2 16.7% 8 81.2% 61.0% 57.8% 54.1% 1425 ↑ top
2 Wind Allies 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 62.9% 55.0% 55.7% 1597 ↑ top
3 Fire Aggro 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 55.2% 52.0% 49.8% 1373 ↑ top
4 Fire Exia 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 51.1% 50.0% 50.9% 1195 ↓ low
5 Water Fractal 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 42.3% 50.0% 46.9% 1517 ↑ top
6 Water Jin 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 52.5% 50.0% 51.0% 1197 ↓ low
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 58.2% 48.0% 52.0% 1250 ↓ low
8 Wind Neos Tonoris 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 44.0% 45.0% 47.6% 1176 ↓ low
9 Wind Razorgale 1 8.3% 4 37.5% 45.5% 44.2% 46.0% 1235 ↓ low
10 Wind Seiryuu 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 39.7% 44.0% 45.4% 1212 ↓ low
11 Water Tera Cleric 1 8.3% 4 0.0% 31.9% 40.0% 42.8% 1132 ↓ low