← MSG Abyssal Heaven Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MSG Abyssal Heaven Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 9.1% 6 83.3% 66.7% 58.3% 57.7% 1343
2 Wind Astra Cleric 1 9.1% 6 58.3% 66.6% 54.7% 60.1% 1326
3 Fire Suzaku 1 9.1% 4 62.5% 48.9% 53.3% 50.7% 1548 ↑ top
4 Wind Allies 2 18.2% 8 62.5% 49.8% 52.9% 50.7% 1382 ↑ top
5 Water Fractal 1 9.1% 5 70.0% 55.7% 52.9% 51.8% 1317
6 Water Genbu 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 47.0% 50.0% 49.3% 1345
7 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 18.2% 8 37.5% 38.1% 47.8% 46.6% 1383 ↑ top
8 Fire Arcane 1 9.1% 3 16.7% 44.8% 45.0% 49.2% 1187 ↓ low
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 37.9% 40.0% 44.4% 1108 ↓ low
10 Fire Razorgale 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 37.9% 40.0% 44.4% 1108 ↓ low