EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 22.2% | 8 | 75.0% | 54.8% | 57.0% | 52.2% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 59.8% | 53.3% | 55.4% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 52.5% | 52.0% | 51.6% | 1233 | — |
| 4 | Wind Cats | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 62.3% | 47.8% | 56.2% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.1% | 46.7% | 45.8% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.9% | 42.2% | 48.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 43.2% | 40.0% | 45.9% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 27.4% | 40.0% | 37.0% | 1476 | ↑ top |