EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship!!!!!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 68.4% | 56.0% | 56.6% | 1248 | — |
| 2 | Wind Diana | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.4% | 55.7% | 54.2% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 3 | 16.7% | 13 | 69.2% | 65.7% | 55.2% | 55.9% | 1265 | — |
| 4 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.7% | 55.0% | 52.6% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 1304 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 2 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1233 | — |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 2 | 11.1% | 9 | 44.4% | 45.9% | 48.7% | 47.7% | 1263 | — |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 47.5% | 47.2% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 46.4% | 47.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 32.6% | 45.7% | 41.7% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.2% | 44.4% | 47.3% | 1237 | — |
| 13 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 12.5% | 31.9% | 40.8% | 40.7% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 36.7% | 39.2% | 1083 | ↓ low |