Water FractalTier 2
at GGA Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1201
· median 1201
· range 1187–1215
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1182
Q3 1293
1446
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
